We are two days from the NFL Draft and I still don't really know what the Jets are doing at #2. Which, in a world where everything leaks by Wednesday, is kind of refreshing. Darren Mougey has kept this one pretty tight.
The two names everyone keeps circling are Arvell Reese out of Ohio State and David Bailey out of Texas Tech. Both edge rushers. And then last week the Jets canceled Bailey's scheduled top-30 visit, which, you know, immediately set off the predictable speculation that the Jets have quietly landed on Reese.
What Mougey Actually Said About the Bailey Visit
Mougey got asked about it Tuesday at the predraft presser and basically waved it off. He said they'd already had good touch points with Bailey at the combine, went to his pro day, had a dinner, and that they were just juggling how to use their 30 visits. He also said other visits got changed too, and that he wouldn't read too much into a cancellation.
Then he dropped the line that I think is the real tell. He said sometimes these visits are, quote, a smokescreen.
That's the part I keep coming back to. The top-30 visits aren't just about evaluating players. Teams use them for medical checks, for the sports performance group to spend time with a guy, for recruiting, sometimes for misdirection. If the Jets already have the info they need on Bailey, there's no reason to burn a slot on him. That doesn't tell me they've ruled him out. It might actually tell me the opposite.
The Case for Bailey vs the Case for Reese
Here's where it gets interesting. On the stat sheet, it's not close. Bailey led the FBS with 14.5 sacks last season. Reese had 6.5.
But the 6.5 comes with an asterisk, and a fair one. Reese played multiple positions at Ohio State and only had 97 pass-rushing opportunities. So the rate is actually pretty solid, and the positional flexibility is real. He's the more versatile piece. Bailey's the more refined pass rusher right now.
The Jets focused on defense in free agency, but sources have said they're still hunting for a dynamic front-seven presence. That fits either of these guys. So it really does come down to what Mougey and the staff see when they watch the tape and which archetype they think unlocks this defense.
If I had to lean one way right now? I'd lean Bailey. The production is loud. But I genuinely don't know, and I think that's the right answer.
The #2 Pick Advantage Nobody Talks About
One thing Mougey said that I thought was smart. With Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza the presumptive #1 overall to the Raiders, the Jets don't have to project. They know they're picking from a known pool.
"It's a little different. It's nice, right?" he said.
Yeah, it is nice. The Jets have only picked #2 three times in their history, most recently 2021. That one gave us Zach Wilson, so let's, you know, hope the vibes are different this time. But the structural advantage of picking second is real. You get to plan.
The Ty Simpson Question at #16 or #33
The other thing worth watching. The Jets own four of the top 44 picks, including #2, #16, and #33. And the question I keep circling back to is whether they use #16 or #33 on Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback. I went deeper on the Simpson fit and the Cardinals comp in this earlier breakdown if you want the longer version.
They sent a real contingent down to Tuscaloosa last month. Dinner with Simpson, private workout the next day. They came away impressed with his character and football intelligence, which, okay, that's what you want to hear. The concern is experience. Fifteen college starts is not a lot. They had similar meetings with other quarterbacks, including Miami's Carson Beck.
Mougey described the process and it was kind of interesting. They give the quarterbacks information the night before, then test them the next day on what they retained, how naturally they talk football, whether there's a connection in the room. That makes me think they're evaluating processing speed and football mind as much as arm talent, which tracks with what you'd expect from this front office.
If Simpson is there at 16, that's a real conversation. If they pass at 16 and he's there at 33, even more interesting, because then they're getting a potential developmental quarterback at a cost that doesn't mortgage the roster.
What I Think Happens
I guess my honest read is this. The Jets take an edge at #2. I lean Bailey but I wouldn't be shocked by Reese. The canceled visit is almost certainly not the tell people want it to be. And the real drama is going to be at 16, where the quarterback question is actually live.
Two days. We'll see.
