So the draft's Thursday. Three days out. And if you've been following along this week, you kind of already know the subplot that matters past the No. 2 pick, right? It's Ty Simpson. Alabama. QB2 in the class behind Mendoza, whatever that means at this point.
And I don't know, the more I sit with it, the more it feels like the Jets and the Cardinals are basically setting up to fight over him. Not at No. 2, not at No. 3. Further down. And the way the picks fall this year, this thing kind of has to come to a head in a pretty specific spot on the board.
Let me try to walk through it.
Simpson real quick, because you need the resume
One year as a starter at Alabama. That's the knock. That's what everybody leads with, and it's a real one. But in that one year, the kid threw for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, five picks. 64.5% completion. Five picks. That's not nothing. SEC defenses. Behind a line that was fine but not elite.
The issue, and I get this, is that 15 starts is not a lot of tape to bet a first-round pick on. Evaluators keep bringing up the list. Trubisky, Richardson, Trey Lance, Sanchez. First-round QBs who didn't have a ton of college reps. You know how those stories ended. So I get why teams are cautious even on a kid who, by most accounts, has the arm and the pocket feel and the competitive stuff you want.
I guess the way I'd put it is, he's a real prospect. He's just not a clean one. And in this league, that usually means somebody reaches and somebody passes and both teams think they were right.
Okay, where the Jets actually sit
So the Jets. Pick 2, pick 16, pick 33. That's the hand.
They brought Geno back for Week 1. That, to me, is the tell on how urgent this actually is at quarterback. They're not desperate. Geno's a bridge, whatever the bridge ends up bridging to. Could be Simpson, could be the 2027 class, could be a guy on waivers in November, I don't know.
Cimini over at ESPN had the Jets doing a private workout and a dinner with Simpson a couple weeks back. Word out of that was they really liked him. Character, competitiveness, football IQ, the works. Which is fine, I guess. But then Rosenblatt at The Athletic basically said what most of us are already thinking, which is that "liked the meeting" does not get you to 16. Size stuff, one-year starter stuff, some arm strength questions. If you're picking in the middle of the first, you have to be way past liking the meeting. You have to be sure.
And the Jets, to me, do not sound sure.
That kind of pushes the whole conversation down to 33, which is honestly where this thing lives anyway.
Before that though, the other piece. Glenn. If he goes 3-14 again, he's probably not coaching this team in 2027. So in theory there's pressure to grab the franchise guy right now. But Mougey's the GM and he thinks longer term than that. And the 2027 class, supposedly, is loaded. Arch Manning. LaNorris Sellers. A couple others. Jets have three firsts next year. So you kind of see both sides pulling at the same time.
Arizona is basically us with different colors
Cardinals let Kyler walk. Brissett is the starter, Minshew's the backup. That's not a future. That's a holding pattern.
New head coach is Mike LaFleur, who runs a West Coast-ish system that by most accounts fits Simpson like a glove. Which is why every draft guy has been mocking Simpson to Arizona for months at this point. Fowler at ESPN said basically that when he calls around about Simpson, the Cardinals are the name that keeps coming up, and nobody else really fits as clean.
They pick 3, which everybody assumes is an edge or a pass rusher. Then they pick 34.
Right after the Jets.
You see the problem, right?
The 33 and 34 thing
Here's where it gets fun. Or awkward. Depending on how you're wired.
If Simpson falls out of the first round, which a lot of people think he will, the Jets are on the clock at 33 and the Cardinals pick right after at 34. Same board. Both teams want him. Both teams would rather pay second-round money than first-round money. Both teams know the other team is sitting there.
And the betting markets kind of back this up. DraftKings has Arizona as the favorite to draft Simpson at +115. Jets second at +175. So the market's already pricing this in as a two-team race.
What do the Jets actually do?
If you've done the homework, if the workout went well, if you actually like the kid, and you're picking right before the team everyone knows is going to take him, that's, like, that's the textbook spot to just pull the trigger, right? Even if you're not a hundred percent. Because the alternative is watching him go 34 to a team that's not even in your division, and now they've got your developmental QB for the next ten years while you're still rolling with Geno.
Or, and this is the Kiper angle, Arizona sees it coming and trades up into the back of Round 1 to jump the whole thing. Kiper had them moving up to 30 in his final mock, giving up a couple picks to Miami to make it happen. That's not crazy. That's actually a pretty clean play if you're Monti Ossenfort and you're sure Simpson's your guy.
The option nobody really talks about much, and this is the one I keep circling back to, is the Jets just let him go. Take the best non-QB at 33, stick with Geno, and bet the whole thing on the 2027 class. If you think Manning or Sellers is coming out next year, and you've got three firsts to play with, you don't need to reach for a QB you're not in love with.
That's the play I'd probably make. I think.
I don't really know what they do
Honestly, I don't. Two weeks ago I would've said Bailey at 2, receiver at 16, let Arizona have Simpson at 34, build for 27. That's still, to me, the cleaner long-term move.
But drafts get weird, and war rooms are emotional, and if Glenn and the staff came out of that dinner genuinely thinking this is the guy, 33 is a really hard spot to pass. Because at that point you're basically saying you like him enough to draft him, you just don't like him enough to pay first-round money. Which is kind of a strange place to live.
The thing I'd tell anybody getting ready for Thursday night is this. The Jets quarterback moment this year is not at No. 2. Everybody keeps writing about it like it is. It isn't. No. 2 is a defender. Bailey, Reese, whoever they land on.
The moment is a day later. Friday night. Pick 33. Cardinals sitting right behind us.
Three days and we find out.
